WEAK official lending finance figures highlight the fragile state of the economic recovery and may urge the Reserve Bank to hold the cash rate steady in the coming months, economists say.
Total personal finance commitments rose a moderate 0.7 per cent in February, seasonally adjusted, to $6.988 billion, from $6.943 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Tuesday.
In the year to February, total finance commitments among consumers, business and home buyers grew by 1.6 per cent in adjusted terms.
CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said the data was not consistent with a strong economic recovery and should give the Reserve Bank reason to stay its hand with lifting the cash rate further.
“The central bank would want to be careful about lifting rates in this environment … it clearly highlights that a rate pause should be on the Reserve Bank’s agenda over the next couple of months,” he said.
“Over all it highlights the weak environment that we’re in. It’s not a guaranteed recovery that we’re in.
“If you look at the annual figure, its almost anaemic. It’s not consistent with a strong economic recovery.”
The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate five times over the past seven months, with its most recent 25 basis point rate rise taking the cash rate to 4.25 per cent.
Total commercial finance was up 5.6 per cent in February, seasonally adjusted, to $28.082 billion, from $26.581 billion in January, the ABS data also showed.
Mr Sebastian said the commercial finance figures were a good result, but were coming from a very weak base.
“It’s an early sign that business investment is starting to come back and gain traction,” he said.
Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said the commercial finance figures would give the Reserve Bank some comfort, but he noted the volatile nature of the series gave a limited snapshot of the economy.
“It’s one of those pieces of data that … doesn’t provide that much information on one month’s data,” he said.
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